Aug 16, 2010 Joblessness Does Not A Recovery Make

The Administration declared the recession over in July, 2009. It was a good political sound bite, but one that has yet to be confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions. A bit premature according to the NBER which reports:

Last Four Recessions and their Durations

Recessions end with the resumption of economic expansion evidenced with job growth. However, non-farm labor is 52,000 employees lower this July. With businesses and households facing many financial uncertainties, the hoped for expansion will remain anemic. The Economist, using NBER data, has examined the current and the five prior recessions, including the 30s. 

Our current trajectory is not pretty. Friday's jobs report provided no encouragement.

Accustomed to debt for decades and lacking the equity or incomes to support previous financial assumptions, businesses and households will continue priortizing debt reduction over consumption until incomes improve. Compounding the problem for central planners are the Boomers who have no motivation to resume their prior spending levels since most are now empty nesters and their underfunded retirement is looming.

With China surpassing Japan as the world's second largest economy, investment portfolios must increasingly redirect capital outside the USA. The middle class demographic cohorts in China and the emerging markets are neither wealthy enough nor numerically large enough to replace the US consumer. However, not facing the burden of debt present in developed economies, growth opportunities should be easier to find.