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Don and Perry discuss financial news and ideas.
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VIDEO DEC. 29TH PREPARING FOR BEAR MARKET # 17
January 5th: 2018 Review. Please! No repeat!
December joined the history making record book!
Tesla faces additional challenges this year.
Bear markets are difficult for “buy-the-dip” investors.
Companies and countries don’t turn on a dime but stocks do.
Computers are driving markets more than investors understand.
December 29th: Computerized trading is digital herd behavior.
Digital lemmings chasing one headline after another. Christmas eve was the worst in history for the Dow. Sell-offs seem to generate their own gravity. Morningstar concedes active manager funds have getter persistence than index funds! “Who’da thunk it?”
December 22nd: Trump Triple Whammy Smacks Markets
Fed Chairman Powell: Right or Wrong?
Bear market territory: Ready or Not
LeRoy called regarding year-end tax losses
Barbara called about her 401k strategy
Along with the Fed, central bankers in Europe & Japan exercising new restraint.
Drying up money for the market is a major challenge for investors.
VIDEO DEC. 15TH: SLIPPERY SLOPE MARKET UPDATE
December 15th: Who Is In Charge: Bulls or Bears?
Topsy Turvy market. Is there any hope for higher prices?
The number of stocks falling below 200 day moving average has collapsed.
Cyclical bull market has flat-lined. Need an ER doctor. STAT!
What do you mean “Buy the Dip” isn’t working?
December 8th: China is in the news with the arrest of a Huawei’s CFO along with no progress at the G20 meeting.
Yuan will not replace US Dollar as world’s reserve currency.
Lloyd called with question on stock certificates.
Guy called regarding cash reserves
Jeff called regarding gold and China’s purchases
Which of nearly 4 million indices will you choose? Even the S&P-500 is not passive. One anomaly never goes away.
December 1st: “…global stocks and bonds are both on track to finish…” WSJ
Rallies in gold and Treasuries struggling
Bitcoin continuing collapse
Any value in karatcards?
“The stock market doesn’t know you own it.” Adam Smith
General Motors plant closings: good news or bad?
Dave called with questions about market manipulation.
VIDEO: THANKSGIVING MARKET REVIEW
November 24th: By the time reports say we are “in a bear market,” it is not a forecast.
It is reality and likey to get worse.
North Carolina caller suggests tax loss selling may extend current downtrend
Seattle caller asked about the catalyst for the next breakdown.
Apple stock completes the FAANG’s dropping into bear market conditions.
November 17th: Financial Times Press Release accelerates S&P-500 Minutes later, a government representative reports it as fake news.
Lesson: Do not invest on rumors.
Bonds as risk management tool at risk according to IMF as reported in Barrons.
Protecting your accounts from fraud.
Passive index business surpasses 3.5 million. Take your pick.
November 10th: There are many things commonly observed during market declines.
Political gridlock – good or bad for the market?
Is it time to switch from growth to value emphasis in portfolios?
Since the 1990 Japan market peak, the Nikkei Index is still -43%.
Bursting bubbles can make “buy & hold” very hard to do.
VIDEO: POST ELECTION MARKET REVIEW
November 3rd: John from Tacoma called with questions about falling GE stock.
General question everyone wants to know: Why are stocks falling?
Classic sell signal occurred this week from widely accepted indicator.
Underpinnings of market possibly weaker than most investors suspect.
IBM is buying Red Hat shrinking the overall stock universe.
Acquisitions often a means for a company attempting to avoid obsolescence.
October 27th: Stocks fall faster than they rise.
October has wiped out all of this year’s gains in the S&P-500.
Stocks lead the economy. Corporate CEOs are projecting lower sales next year and little room to raise profits. Not good.
Blockchain technology is not enough to stop IBM stock from falling.
Analysts’ interest rate forecasts add to downward pressure on stocks.
Sears catalogue was the Amazon of the ‘30s-40s. Now, after 126 years of dominating retail sales, then being kicked out of the Dow Jones Average, Sears is no more.
Last week, the NYSE new 52-week highs were 23 against 1,134 52-week new lows. That is not a good ratio for any investor.
September housing sales were a big disappointment along with lower revisions for prior data periods. Six straight months of decline. Ouch! And the Fed wants even higher interest rates!!
Biggest buyers of stocks have moved to sidelines which partially explains last week’s market drop.
October 13th: This week was U-G-L-Y!
S and P 500 had 20th negative 3% day since ’09.
Winners and losers hammered hard.
Stock buy-back programs suspended prior to earnings season.
Without buy-backs, there have been insufficient buyers to support, much less, push prices to new highs.
MAJOR CHANGE: The Bond Bull Market has probably come to an end! The Bond Bull Market is ESSENTIAL for the standard asset allocation model to function. Is this “Bye-bye” time for boiler plate risk management?
October 6th: Bear markets are not identified by unexpected collapse in prices.
Bear markets can move sideways for years.
Don & Perry discussed ‘lesson learned’ in Brian Livingston’s book: Muscular Portfolios.
Blinded by optimism.
Difficulties of recovering from bear markets.
Lloyd called from Tacoma regarding Tesla and Elon Musk and SpaceEx.
Tesla stock is down 32% from its high in June 2017.
September 29th: When investing, verbal narratives should be viewed with caution. News reports may explain recent price movements, but investors often interpret the ‘news’ as a forecast.
Negative returns persist at Tesla. The stock is compared to Ferrari.
Don and Perry discussed the latest Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Rising rates have begun impacting investment choices in 401k plans.
Risk tolerance questionnaires inadequately reflect changing investor response to markets.
September 22nd: Is it really very easy to buy the best performing stocks?
Maybe it just looks like it.
It is very difficult to pick a truly big winner. It is even harder to hold on to it until it becomes a super profitable stock. What does speculation look like and how can we avoid being drawn into it.
August 25: Stock market longevity is not an indicator for any portfolio decision
Majority of stocks remain in a protracted trading range.
Caller asks about meaning of an inverted yield curve as an economic predictor.
Global demand for US Treasuries remains high in spite of selling by China and Russia.
August 18: Investor Sentiment Disconnected from Prices
We examined four common stock market assumptions and the struggle for new all-time highs.
After years of no progress, the SPDR Retail Sector ETF (XRT) shows signs of revival as investors seek reduced volatility.
Amazon and Walmart, the two largest components, have different target markets.
And a caution for dividend investors as another star cuts its dividend again.
August 11: How long will this bull market last?
This week we talked about how bull markets end and if we can see it coming. What are the important things to focus on and why it is so hard to predict the end of a bull market. Gabriel called asking what was the difference between Investor Resources and Fisher Investments.
August 4: Gold’s lack of glitter forces change
Vanguard announced it discontinues offering a fund with “gold” in its name. The change will significantly reduce the amount of gold in the newly renamed funds. The Fed has difficult balancing act with its intent to raise interest rates against the risk of reversing our economic growth. Stock buy-back are programs supporting prices while distorting companies’ real progress.
July 28th: Just how strong is this market.
We take a look at the record setting NASDAQ and see if we can figure how much longer it will last. What are the kinds of things that ended other bull markets. We also covered why investors are so afraid to buy near the top of a market but not at what they believe to be the low.
July 21st: IRA investors – It is still “buyer beware”
The proposed rule requiring registered representatives of stock brokerage firms to act in the best interest of the IRA owner has been delayed again. Don discusses the difference between brokers and pretend and real fiduciaries. Gene called from N. Carolina with related questions.
This week’s show covered the choppiness of the current market, the negative trends in foreign markets and gold.
Edith called with questions about capital gain taxes.
July 14th: The Original Flash Crash
We took a look back at the 1962 flash crash to see what investors and commentators were thinking at the time. Turns out to be very similar to what is going on today. We also had calls about how we track asset performance (price) and can you take an income stream using our model (yes). This and much more on todays show.
July 7th: NEWS! NEWS! NEWS!
This week we discussed “When does ‘news’ become irrelevant or obsolete?” And, Jeff from Tacoma called. He and his wife just entered the “empty nest” life stage and asked about ramping up investments for retirement.
June 23rd: DOW JONES EVICTS GENERAL ELECTRIC: The only surviving original member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is replaced. As the DJIA has lost its glitter, the concept of using an index has proliferated – often to the detriment of investors.